วันจันทร์ที่ 1 มีนาคม พ.ศ. 2553

2010-2012 Nine New Shocking Prediction

Nine New Shocking Prediction 
9 คำพยากรณ์ใหม่ช๊อกโลก 2010-2012
from Dr. Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
Title: Founder and President of Weiss Research, Inc.


Prediction #1
Starting this year, most U.S. stocks are
likely to fall in a zigzag pattern for
nearly three long years!
Richard: And now, we have a new signal. Most U.S. stocks are likely to go down. And they are likely to fall — in a zigzag pattern — for nearly three long years.
Monty: In the past, almost every recession and bear market in this country delivered solid values to investors. We saw price-earnings ratios (P/Es) in single digits. We saw great stocks selling for five or six times earnings. But this time, the government was so panicked, it never let that happen. And now P/Es are already back up again to grossly overvalued levels.
Richard, you’re talking about giant swings. For a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, those swings are a disaster. But with a more flexible strategy, they can generate giant profit opportunities — in both directions.
Martin: Can you be more specific?
Monty: Go back 10 years and assume you had been following the Foundation’s cycle research before 2000. You could have sidestepped the Tech Wreck that destroyed so much wealth. Plus, you could have pulled out a 37 percent profit from that decline. Then, if you followed its research in 2003, you could have moved back into the S&P and come out with a 146 percent gain from 2003 to 2009.
Martin: What about more recent years?
Monty: Same pattern. If you had used its research published before 2008, instead of the wipe-out losses that most investors suffered, my data indicates you could have made a 37 percent profit. And in 2009, based on the Foundation’s call for an intermediate rally, you could have made another 42 percent profit.
Martin: And going forward?
Monty: Do not expect a similar pattern.
Martin: Why not?
Richard: Because if our cycle work is even halfway right, conditions will change, and investors could make as much — or more — money in other asset classes.
Martin: Instead of stocks?
Richard: Gold! Never before in the history of civilization have we seen a world power like the United States with its finances in such disarray as they are now.
Martin: We’ve seen world powers rise and fall — from Rome to Spain to Britain. And we’ve seen them incur big debts after their decline.
Richard: Yes, but now we have a country that is both the dominant world power and the world’s largest debtor at the same time. This is a massive force that could propel the price of gold.
Martin: When and how far?

Prediction #2
Gold will skyrocket far higher than
$2,000 per ounce by the end of 2011.
Richard: By the third or fourth quarter of 2011, the price of gold should be far higher than $2,000 per ounce.
Martin: Why is this so shocking?
Richard: Because it’s going to happen in the midst of a sinking stock market and economy.
Monty: I don’t think that should come as such a surprise, either. In the last few years, despite two big stock market declines and despite the worst recession since the Great Depression, gold quadrupled in value.
No one knows for sure what the future will bring. But I would take the Foundation’s gold forecast very seriously.
Its cycle work predicted the great bull market in gold of the 1970s.
It predicted gold’s downturn starting in the 1980s.
And it would have got you back into gold in 2001 … urging you to hold on ever since.
Richard: This has been — and should continue to be — one of the greatest profit opportunities of all time.
Martin: We have a question on this that’s very relevant …
Audience: My name is Elizabeth and I am from Fort Lauderdale. My question is: Much has been talked about gold, but what is your opinion on investing in silver?
Richard: In terms of timing, it never ceases to amaze us how closely all precious metals track gold — not only silver, but also platinum and palladium. The differences are strictly an issue of how far each metal rises or falls. Between now and 2012, there will be periods when silver and other metals do better than gold. But when all is said and done, you will find that gold is, by far, the single best performer because of its value as a hedge against the dollar.
Martin: What’s behind this cycle in gold?
Richard: It parallels the cycles in the U.S. dollar. And for the dollar — or for proxies of the dollar — we have cyclical data going all the way back to 1680.
Cycle chart
Martin: Before the dollar even existed!
Monty: I have scrutinized the Foundation’s dollar research just as closely as its stock market research.
Its cycles predicted the dollar’s plunge from 1971 to 1980 … the dollar’s surge peaking in 1985 … the dollar’s decline bottoming in 1992 … the dollar’s rally through 2001 … and then, the big plunge since.
Richard: And now, the dominant cycle in the dollar is forecasting the next major move.

Prediction #3
The U.S. Dollar Index will begin to sink in 2010
and will not hit bottom until early 2012.
Richard: A major, new dollar decline, beginning in the third quarter of 2010 and ending in early 2012.
Monty: Currencies are not a beauty contest. They’re an ugly contest. And among many ugly currencies, the dollar usually wins the prize — as the ugliest.
Richard: The real decline in the dollar — and all currencies — will show up more clearly in the doubling of the value of gold we just talked about. Measured against gold, the dollar’s purchasing power will fall by half or more, depending, of course, on the intensity of the global selling that hits the greenback.
Martin: What about oil and other commodities?

Prediction #4
Most commodities will not
make new, all-time highs!
Richard: Oil will not return to its all-time highs. Unlike gold, it is driven less by currency disasters and more by consumer or industrial demand. And we simply do not see high demand being sustained through this period.
Martin: So it would be a mistake to overinvest in commodities right now.
Monty: I agree.
Martin: Most commodities won’t surge because …

Prediction #5
The U.S. economy will suffer a severe
double-dip recession in 2011!
Richard: Because the U.S. economy will sink into another recession.
Martin: Similar to the recession of 2009?
Richard: Probably worse!
Martin: Again, the timing question: When?
Richard: Not right away. Our cyclical data on GDP and on consumption points to a material improvement in the U.S. economy through the first two quarters of 2010.
But starting in the second half of 2010, GDP growth will start to sink fast and we could see negative growth by the beginning of 2011. The worst period for the economy will hit in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Monty: You don’t have to look very far to see the reasons: You have unemployment holding at extremely high levels. You have scarce capital, with lending to households and corporations drying up. You have consumers, businesses, and now even governments strapped for cash.
Martin: That’s an understatement! Look at what’s happening in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and even the UK — and that was despite all the stimulus and bailouts …
Monty: No! Because of all the money they’ve spent on bailouts!
Martin: Right.
Monty: Remember. These are no longer just private banks or automakers going under. They are entire countries!
Martin: Plus, you don’t have to connect many dots to see the consequences of a recession. Right now, the Obama administration says the 2010 federal deficit will be $1.6 TRILLION. Care to guess what the government forecast was for this same deficit back in 2008?
Monty: A lot less, I presume.
Martin: Mike Larson looked back at the forecast made by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just two years ago, in 2008. The CBO predicted that the U.S. deficit for this year — for 2010 — would be $249 billion. Now, it’s coming in at $1.6 TRILLION, or over six times more than they forecast.
Monty: They didn’t expect the deep recession that struck in 2009.
Martin: Much like they’re not expecting a double-dip recession to strike next year! My point is that, just like their forecast was dead wrong for this year, it could be dead wrong again in coming years.

Prediction #6
The U.S. budget deficit will
surpass $2 trillion in 2012!
Look at 2012! For that year, the Obama administration is making some aggressively optimistic assumptions for the U.S. economy and forecasting a deficit of $828 billion. Instead, with the economy sinking, it could be over $2 TRILLION!
Monty: Some people may think these huge blunders merely reflect the government’s forecasting errors. But it’s much more than that. Politicians know they’re rigging the numbers. And they’re swearing on a stack of Bibles that it’s an honest estimate.

Prediction #7
Bond prices will plunge because of
out-of-control deficits and a sinking dollar!
No matter what, the big risk is that global investors will sell U.S. dollars wholesale. And they can’t sell them in a vacuum.
Along with the dollars, they also have to sell the assets where they’re holding the dollars — especially long-term Treasury bonds. So you could see a massive plunge in bond prices.
Martin: Translate that into bond yields.
Monty: You’ll see a major spike upward in yields. That could give investors a huge buying opportunity to lock in those higher yields for years to come — provided, of course, price inflation does not run rampant and the U.S. government is still a safe bet at that time.
Richard: The U.S. government — and, indeed, America — faces a great historic test: A test of our power — and our willpower — as a nation.
Martin: Please explain what you mean by that with respect to cycles.

Prediction #8
2012 will be the year of maximum
turmoil in markets and
peak tension in society!
Richard: The great test for our country — an Armageddon of sorts — will come in the year of maximum turmoil in the financial markets, the time of peak tension in society: 2012.
Martin: I assume this has nothing to do with the movie by that name, based on ancient forecasts.
Richard: Of course not! We’ve had 2012 pegged as the year of the “Perfect Storm” since 2002.
Martin: What’s the basis of the perfect storm?
Richard: A convergence of cycles! We have the dollar cycle, stock market cycles, consumption cycles, and GDP cycles all bottoming in this same approximate time frame — between late 2011 and late 2012. Plus, 2012 is also smack dab in the middle of a sweeping transition already under way in our longest term and probably most important cycle of all.
Martin: Which is?
Richard: The 500-year geopolitical cycle. We’ve mapped it all the way back to 670 BC. It is a broad, far-reaching shift in power, wealth, and money — from East to West, or, as is the case now, from West to East.
Martin: We’ve talked about that before.

Prediction #9
2012 will bring a massive wealth shift

from old fortunes that are destroyed
to new ones that are created!
Richard: Yes, but I want to add that we’re not only talking about a power shift from West to East. We’re also talking about a major wealth shift from old fortunes that are destroyed to new ones that are created … from countries, companies, and families that were dominant for many decades to new ones that replace them on the other side of this massive upheaval!
Martin: Provided they are well prepared ahead of time.
Monty: And provided they use reliable signals with prudent risk control. No matter what you invest in or how you invest, the real possibility of losses is something you always have to be aware of.
Martin: Yes! On our blog, though, many readers tell us they make decisions largely based on gut, which implies not only analysis, but also intuition — and emotion. They admit that, more often than not, that’s their basis for deciding how much to invest in each asset class and when.
What would be your standard allocation to those five asset classes, based on your analysis of the Foundation’s work?

สรุป 9 คำพยากรณ์ใหม่ช๊อกโลก 2010-2012 
โดย Dr. Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
1.เริ่มจากปีนี้ หุ้นตัวหลักและส่วนใหญ่ของสหรัฐจะเริ่มตกต่ำอย่างต่อเนื่องไปในลักษณะฟันปลาอีกอย่างน้อย 3 ปี
2.ราคาทองคำจะพุ่งทะลุ $2,000 ต่อออนซ์ ก่อนปลายปี 2011
3.เงินดอลล่าจะเริ่มดิ่งลงในปีนี้ และจะดิ่งลงอย่างต่อเนื่องอย่างไม่มีที่สิ้นสุดไปจนถึงปี 2012
4.นอกจากทองคำแล้ว โภคภัณฑ์ (Commodities) ตัวอื่นราคายากที่จะพุ่งสูงขึ้นเนื่องจากดีมานด์ หรือไม่ง่ายที่จะทำ New High อีก
5.สหรัฐจะประสบภาวะเศรษฐกิจตกต่ำ "ขั้นรุนแรง หรือ Double-Dip Recession" เป็นรอบ 2 ในปี 2011
6.งบประมาณขาดดุลย์ประจำปีของสหรัฐจะพุ่งทะลุ $2 Trillion ( $2,000,000,000,000) ในปี 2012
7.พันธบัตรสหรัฐจะล่ม เพราะการขาดดุลย์งบประมาณที่ควบคุมไม่ได้ และการดำดิ่งลงของเงินดอลล่า
8.2012 จะเป็นปีที่เลวร้ายที่สุดของตลาด เศรษฐกิจโลก และความตึงเครียดอย่างถึงขีดสุดในภาคสังคม
9.2012 จะเป็นปีของการเคลื่อนตัวของความมั่งคั่งจากโลกตะวันตกไปสู่โลกตะวันออก และจากพลวัตเดิมที่ล้มครืนลงไปสู่รูปแบบใหม่ที่ถูกสร้างขึ้น ( New World Order )

1 ความคิดเห็น:

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